Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Estimating Tomorrow's EIA Naural Gas Storage Report (plus the rat-bastard EIA raised their estimate of storage capacity)

The futures are up a nickle at $3.042, breaking through our $3.00 "Line in the Sand" and making me feel like the folks who bet on the Nazi's: "In May of 1940 it was looking so good".

Yesterday we gave you some of the factors to watch for in tomorrow's report:
...Although the futures got to $3.277 in late July, three bucks is looking like the magic number, especially if long specs are betting on the coming NYC two-day heat wave or a much lower than average storage report: duh the report will cover the Gulf of Mexico Isaac shut-ins (11Bcf) and the prior NYC heat wave....
This morning Bloomberg fleshed out some of the talking points:
Natural Gas Stockpile Gain Was Third of Normal, Analysts Say
U.S. natural-gas inventories rose by about a third of the normal amount last week as hot weather boosted demand from power plants and Hurricane Isaac reduced production in the Gulf of Mexico.

Inventories expanded by 26 billion cubic feet, or 0.8 percent, to 3.428 trillion cubic feet in the week ended Sept. 7, based on the median of 12 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The gain would be 36 percent of the five-year average increase for the week of 72 billion cubic feet. Supplies advanced 80 billion a year earlier.

The stockpile estimates ranged from increases of 19 billion to 39 billion cubic feet. The Energy Department’s weekly inventory report is scheduled for release at 10:30 a.m. tomorrow in Washington....MUCH MORE
The big news is, unfortunately, that the chances of storage capacity being exceed were greatly reduced by the bullish news that there was more available capacity than thought.
Natural gas storage capacity up 3.3 pct: EIA
Underground natural gas storage capacity rose 3.3 percent over the year to April, the government said on Wednesday, a larger-than-expected increase that will further relieve concerns that supplies could exceed capacity this year....MORE at Reuters
Dow Jones pegs the number at 26 Bcf with a range of 19 to 34 while Reuters is the outlier at "low thirties" with a range of 22 to 55 Bcf.