Monday, January 16, 2012

Commodities: "Crop price gains still on the cards, says Goldman"

As the old-timers used to say: "Softs continue to be 'well offered'".
Corn down another 12 cents to just under six bucks, soybeans down another 2%, wheat off 1/2%...
From Agrimoney:
Goldman Sachs remained optimistic on prospects for corn and soybean futures despite cutting its prices forecasts for the main crops following the higher-than-expected US inventory data which sent markets tumbling.
The investment bank sounded a sour note for long-term corn prices, downgrading its estimate for futures in a year's time to $5.25 a bushel, a level not seen since November 2010.
However, most of the bank's estimates for corn and soybeans, even after downgrades of up to $0.55 a bushel, remained above levels the market is currently is factoring in.
"Following this [USDA] data release, we are raising our inventory forecasts and in turn lowering our crop price forecasts," Goldman said.
However, the estimates "remain above the current forward curves for both corn and soybeans".
'Upside risk'
The bank cited inventory estimates which remained "still low" despite the USDA revisions.
Indeed, the USDA in its key Wasde crop report on Thursday trimmed its forecast for US corn stocks at the close of 2011-12, but by 2m bushels, a fraction of the downgrade investors had expected.  ...MORE
See also last Thursday's "Today's USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates: Key Points (WASDE)"