Monday, July 19, 2010

"Is the Dow Really Repeating the Great Depression Pattern?" (DIA)

From Bespoke Investment Group:
Below is a percentage change chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average from its peak in 1929 and its peak in October 2007 going out 698 trading days (which is up until last Friday in today's market).
In early July, an article titled "Dow Repeats Great Depression Pattern" made its way around the web.  The first paragraph noted:
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is repeating a pattern that appeared just before markets fell during the Great Depression.
The author of the report that was the focus of the article (who wrote another piece last week) noted that just before the 1929 crash, a head and shoulders pattern formed, and then after the Dow bounced following that crash, another head and shoulders pattern formed that preceded an even bigger fall over a number of years.  He argued that a head and shoulders pattern also marked the beginning of the market crash in 2007, and that another recently formed head and shoulders pattern spelled doom for the markets.
“Those who don’t remember history are doomed to repeat it…there was a head and shoulders pattern that developed before the Depression in 1929, then with the recovery in 1930 we had another head and shoulders pattern that preceded a fall in the market, and in the current Dow situation we see an exact repeat of that environment."
Maybe we're not looking at it right, but to us, the 1929 pattern looks completely different than the current one....MORE