WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. economy will slow significantly in the second half of the year, but should continue to grow, according to Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight. "The weak recovery in employment has dashed hopes that the consumer could begin to drive the recovery," Gault said. The firm is now forecasting strong gross domestic product growth of 3.8% in the second quarter. But GDP will slow to 2.3% in the third quarter, down from a 2.8% forecast a month ago. "Beyond the third quarter, we see GDP growth staying soft in the 2.5%-3% range, a subdued recovery by historical standards due to credit and balance-sheet constraints." The Federal Reserve probably won't raise interest rates until the end of 2011, he said.