Monday, February 8, 2010

Three Stocks that Didn't Go Down Today: Tesla, Solyndra, Codexis (CDXS; SOLY; TSLA) and a Money Management Story

That's because they're still putting their IPO's together.
As I was re-writing the headline I couldn't help thinking of Cheers' Cliff Clavin.*
From Greentech:

Greentech IPO Scorecard: Tesla, Solyndra, Codexis
For better or for worse, 2010 looks to be the year of the greentech IPO.

According to a study by Ernst & Young, 53 companies filed paperwork to hold initial public offerings in Q4 2009 -- the highest number of new registrants in a single quarter since 2007. That means that there are more deals in the IPO pipeline than there have been for more than two years.

And a number of those IPOs happen to be high-profile offerings in the greentech sector.

For several years I've been predicting that 2010 would be the year of the Greentech IPO. Surprisingly, especially to me, I seem to have been right.

Some facts and figures on the greentech IPOs now on-deck:


Solyndra's innovative photovoltaic glass cylinders are full of it -- full of vacuum, silicone and thin-film CIGS in a relatively low-efficiency configuration. Several of Solyndra's VC investors have told me that the real value for Solyndra is in the cost savings in the Balance of System. Will the institutional investors who drive the success of an IPO buy the Solyndra BoS story? Especially when the cost per watt of c-Si and FSLR CdTe continues to fall? And the cost of Solyndra's product seems somewhat bloated?

A lot rests on the shoulders of Solyndra: the perception of the viability of CIGS technology, the perception of the viability of VC investment in solar manufacturing, and the skill of the DOE in picking technology winners.

We parsed the Solyndra S-1 here.

GTM Research analyst Shyam Mehta did a masterful job at dissecting the Solyndra situation here.

Here is the Solyndra S-1.

An exploration of Solyndra's price per watt.

Tesla Motors

Like Solyndra and A123, Tesla is a "story stock." And like A123 and Solyndra, Tesla anticipates "continuing losses for at least the foreseeable future." A123 and Telas stand as proxy for the EV vison, Solyndra for the promise of new solar technologies....MORE

*When Cliff makes it to the Final Jeopardy question with an insurmountable lead, Alex Trebek asks the contestants to identify Archibald Leach, Bernard Schwartz and Lucille Lesueur and says

"Cliff, unless you've done something incredibly stupid like wagering everything, you've won"

Cliff bet all his money.

His answer was "Who are three people who have never been in my kitchen".

The categories for the game were:

Cliff's "Dream Board".
In the 2005 Ultimate Tournament of Champions the categories of the Double Jeopardy round were:

Double Jeopardy! Round

And for those of you who are fans of Jeopardy! as well as Cheers, that great comedy series, you will recognize our categories in this round...







From our February '08 post "MarketBeat Gets Vedic on Ambac (ABK; MBI)":

Five words I never thought I'd string together.*

And that answer for some reason reminds me of Cliff Clavin on Jeopardy!**:

"Who are three people who have never been in my kitchen?"

Years ago I introduced an Indian guy to a Chicago trader:
"Jerry, this is Siva Kumar"
"Huh....Not a local, huh."...

Here's Cliff: