Our last EUR/USD post had links to some of our thinking on the currency, including a link dated Nov. 18, a week before the $1.5144 top tick :
Euro Risks ‘Leg Lower’ to $1.3405: Technical Analysis
From Bloomberg (again, they've had some good analysts, the "Leg Lower" headline was theirs):...I don't have anything concrete I can point to but 1.50 EUR/USD almost feels as if someone has drawn a line in the sand. As more and more money piles into the trade without movement past that line you start to lose the mo-mo traders and the psychology can shift fast.It's either one of those "I may be in error but never in doubt" statements a rookie would never refer back to or it's a Maxwell Smart moment: "Missed it by thissss much"....
If the buck were to turn and head back to say, 1.20, the results for equities and gold would be painful.
I'm just sayin'...
The euro’s decline against the currencies of Group of 10 countries suggests that its slump against the U.S. dollar may accelerate, Bloomberg Correlation- Weighted Currency Indexes indicate.
The CHART OF THE DAY compares the euro versus the dollar and the 16-nation’s currency performance measured against a basket of G-10 currencies proportioned by correlation in exchange rates. The chart shows the slump in the euro, at its weakest level since Nov. 8, 2007, versus G-10 currencies, started in December 2008, before concern surfaced that the fiscal health of European Union members such as Greece were declining.
“A rescue package will give the euro a short-term reprieve, but it’s mortally wounded,” said Richard Franulovich, a senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in New York. “The euro’s peak against the G-10 currencies occurred many, many months before the euro-dollar’s did. It’s come down a long way lately, but the euro’s still exceptionally overvalued.”...
...The euro dropped to $1.3444 on Feb. 19, its lowest level since May 18. It has declined about 10 percent to $1.3512 since a high on Nov. 25th of $1.5144. It plunged to 105.6 in the Bloomberg index on Feb. 18....MORE
Also at Bloomberg: