Monday, August 11, 2008

Oil and the dollar

From Econbrowser:
Although movements in the value of the dollar are one factor contributing to recent changes in the dollar price of oil, I do not believe they are the most important factor. Here I review some of the evidence that persuades me of this....

...The dollar has depreciated by 30% over this period while the price of oil today is 10 times what it was in 1999. Obviously something other than the pure inflation effect has been involved.

Cumulative change since January 1999 in (1) natural log of spot price of West Texas Intermediate in dollars per barrel (from EIA) and (2) natural log of exchange rate in dollars per euro (from FRED).

...Between January 1, 2007 and July 14, 2008, the dollar depreciated by 18%. If we take that most recent coefficient estimate of 1.76, the regression above would have predicted a logarithmic increase in the price of oil of 31%, or a move from $61/barrel in January 2007 to $83 in July. In fact, oil peaked at $145 on July 14. Since, then, the dollar has appreciated by 5.9%, while the price of oil has fallen by 23%....MORE