Friday, August 29, 2008

To Our Friends on the Gulf Coast: Good Luck, Be Smart

We've spilled as many electrons on Gustav as any non-specialist blog out there. Part of the reason is that we get new visitors to the site. If those new visitors are coming to CI for hurricane news the least we can do is show them the two best hurricane blogs on the WWW.
Here's the lastest from Wunderblog, Dr. Jeff Masters, proprietor:

Gustav clears Jamaica, grows significantly in size
Tropical Storm Gustav has completed its traverse of Jamaica and the center has now exited the western end of the island. At 7:06 am EDT, the Hurricane Hunters found the center of Gustav on the western tip of Jamaica. The storm weathered the passage over the island with relative ease, with the pressure only rising 5 mb, from 983 to 988 mb. Gustav's top winds remain below hurricane force, near 65 mph. Top winds measured in Jamaica during Gustav's passage were in the capital of Kingston, where sustained winds of 50 mph were measured last night. Preliminary news reports indicate that Jamaica suffered no major damage or injuries. However, the death toll has risen to 59 on Hispaniola, where flooding from Gustav killed 51 people in Haiti and 8 in the Dominican Republic....
...The track forecast for Gustav
The trough of low pressure moving across the Midwest U.S. expected to pull Gustav northwest towards the Gulf Coast is expected to weaken and be replaced by a ridge of high pressire on Monday. This means that Gustav may stall just before or just after landfall near Louisiana, and be forced westwards. The models are split: the GFS, HWRF, and GFDL models all carry Gustav into Louisaina or Mississippi on Monday, with a possible turn to the west after landfall. The ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET all foresee a turn to the west before Gustav reaches the coast. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models predict an eventual landfall near Corpus Christi, Texas, while the UKMET bends Gustav southwestwards towards Mexico....MORE

Permanent link on the left.

The other one we depend on is the Houston Chronicle's SciGuy, Eric Berger:

Don't freak out about the newest models, but...

The latest computer models have been released and they reflect a distinct shift westward, toward Texas, for Hurricane Gustav's path. This almost certainly presages a similar shift in the National Hurricane Center's forecast track that will be released at 4 p.m. CT.

Here are most of the models we care about:

Weather Underground

Each of the newest models now appear to show an influence from a high pressure system forecast to build southward from the Great Lakes region, which would push Gustav west. What this means is that we're looking at storm that will probably make landfall in Louisiana or Texas....

Here's the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Gustav page.
Here's the ONN on a U.S.-Centric worldview.
(HT: Dr. Masters)

Hurricane Bound For Texas Slowed By Large Land Mass To The South

Hurricane Bound For Texas Slowed By Large Land Mass To The South