Friday, August 29, 2008

Attention Trina Solar Investors: Currency Watch (TSL)

UPDATE: I was asked why I didn't include the current quote. 1 RMB will cost you 14.623 cents this morning. The key though, is the quote on the last day of the quarter. The point of the post was that the rise of the RMB had slowed, not that it had turned. Chinese inflation is still running above 10% but the odds of the Bank of China having to raise rates (thus strengthening the RMB) are decreased by the slowing world economy. Plus, Chinese exporters would scream bloody murder . Those exporters provide the jobs that help keep a lid on political turmoil in the Middle Kingdom.
See, investing is easy.

Original post:
Trina's shareholders are likely to see a major positive from the company's decision to use the U.S. dollar as their functional currency, at least for the current (third) quarter. Trina's renminbi denominated balance sheet items should require a much smaller charge than the $6.1 mm in Q2. From Hard Assets Investor:

...The currency dodged a bullet in July, going into the month worth 14.59 U.S. cents, peaking at 14.70, then sliding into August at 14.66.

The renminbi dipped to 14.57 cents on August 19.

Chinese Yuan Renminbi Vs. U.S. Dollar (July '05 - August '08)

Chart: Chinese Yuan Renminbi vs. Dollar (July 2005 - August 2008)