Tuesday, August 5, 2008

Baltic Dry Index Down 17 Days in a Row. And: Slowdown in China

Another wonderfully simple chart from Bespoke:

They've got a couple paragraphs of commentary, including a sentence on the shutdown of Chinese factories ahead of the Olympics, which reminded me of this 24/7 Wall Street post that says the slowdown may be deeper and longer lasting:

China Begins To Look Like 1980s Japan
...According to The New York Times, "Chinese factories reported a plunge in new orders last month. Exports are barely growing. Thereal estate market is weakening." China's leaders may not think much of the politics of the West, but demand from the regions is the motor for the China export machine.

For China, two things are coming out of the slowing global economy. The first is that demand for China's exports is falling apart. The second is that, as the rate of GDP growth in the world's most populated county wanes, the demand for oil and other commodities is crippled. The sticker on things like oil begin to ease off.

The US may be happy about crude dropping. The counterpart to that is the US exports to China will fall as well. The Chinese don't need what they can't afford. Inflation in the US may slip, but so will growth.

The Shanghai Composite has already lost over half its value in less than a year. Investors began to see China's growth problems coming several quarters back....MORE