Saturday, February 4, 2023

Commodities: "NATO Tank Shipments Could Suggest Upside Potential In Corn"

Here at The Pangloss Group we try to see the opportunity in any given circumstance.

From AgWeb, January 30:

Market Commentary for 1/27/23

This week’s announcement that NATO forces will be supplying Ukraine with tanks indicates hostilities may be heating up. This should give the market some additional risk to evaluate as it is now uncertain how many corn acres Ukraine will get planted this upcoming spring.

The Ukraine Grain Association recently suggested that a reduction in plantings was likely due to the war. If Ukraine’s weather conditions are normal, they estimate only 18 million metric tons (MMT) would be produced, and if weather is poor, it would be closer to 12 MMT....

....MUCH MORE  

Okay, not exactly Candide's "...all is for the best in this best of all possible worlds." but let's try again: 
Very bullish for sticks and stones
Yeah, a bit too flippant. Okay, how about this one, pre-pickled herring: 
 
No? Hey don't blame me. Voltaire wasn't always Mr. Happiness and Light either:
 
....in Candide. There's Martin who is pretty much the anti-Pangloss  and who, arriving in England during the Seven Years War just after the execution of Admiral Byng for not doing his utmost against the French tells Candide:
 
"Dans ce pays-ci, il est bon de tuer de temps en temps un amiral pour encourager les autres." 
(in this country, it is good to kill an admiral from time to time to encourage the others)
 
So we will keep an eye on Ukrainian corn while hoping for the best for the ordinary troops on both sides.