"Wheat Futures Drop to 17-Month Low Amid Ample Supplies"

Commodities are mean-reverting sumbitches.*

From Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance, February 27:

Wheat futures declined to the lowest in 17 months amid ample near-term supplies.

The most active contract fell 1.6% to settle at $7.10 a bushel, the lowest since September 2021. The grain heads for a decline of 6% this month, the biggest monthly loss since November. Top-shipper Russia is expected to post record-high exports in the second half of the season, while Ukraine is seeking to extend its Black Sea grain-export deal by one year.

Strong regional supplies are making sales more competitive, weighing on futures as traders expect the safe-corridor deal to be extended, according to Terry Reilly, senior commodities analyst at Futures International LLC. The Black Sea corridor deal ends in mid-March and negotiations for its renewal already have started....

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*From February 18, 2021, the essence of what I know about commodities
Commodity Supercycle Or Not?

The key to cycles in commodities from extractive industries - oil, gas, metals - is investment while the key in agricultural commodities are the substitution effects at both the producer - does farmer Brown expect more profit from corn or wheat - and the consumer - chicken or steak - levels....

Dec. 2010 
Société Générale's Dylan Grice-"Commodities: ‘Their Expected Long-Run Real Return is 0%’"

April 2013
"From Boom to Bust: A Typology of Real Commodity Prices in the Long Run" Plus a Compendium of Dylan Grice at Société Générale, 2009-2012