Tuesday, February 14, 2023

Capital Markets: "Dollar and Rates Soften a Little Ahead of US CPI"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview: The focus is on the US CPI report today, but the price action is anything but intuitive. Although the revisions of the basket and methodological changes reinforce expectations for the largest rise in three months, the US dollar continues to trade heavily after rallying last week. The dollar-bloc currencies are underperforming today. And US rates are softer. The US 2- and 10-year yields are 1-2 bp lower. 

Most of the large bourses in the Asia Pacific rallied. Hong Kong was a notable exception and the HKMA intervened to support the Hong Kong dollar for the first time since last November. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up 0.5% and is at its best level in a year. Benchmark 10-year yields are mixed, with the core yields mostly softer. Japan reported weaker than expected Q4 22 GDP, underscoring the challenge of the new team to run the BOJ, which the media had leaked last week. The UK's labor market remained strong despite the economy looking recession bound. March WTI has come back offered after closing above $80 yesterday for the first time since January 26. The US confirmed it will sell 26 mln barrels out of its SPR in Q2, honoring a budget agreement struck in 2015. Currently, the SPR holds about 370 mln barrels....

....MUCH MORE