From Marc to Market:
Overview: On the heels of a dramatic jump in US job creation and firmer than expected year-over-year CPI, the US reported a larger than expected jump in retail sales and a strong recovery in manufacturing output. Few think that economic momentum that the recent data implies can be repeated, the "no landing" camp has gained adherents. We suspect that says more about psychology than the economy. The US two-year note is threatening to snap a five-day 20 bp advance today and is coinciding with a somewhat heavier dollar tone. There is a batch of US economic data today, including PPI, weekly jobless claims, and housing starts and permits. Several Fed officials speak today, including St. Louis Fed's Bullard, who is among the leading hawks.
China reported new house prices did not fall last month. It is the first time it has said this since August 2021. Nevertheless, mainland equities bucked the strong regional advance following the recovering of US equities yesterday. Europe's Stoxx 600 is extending its advance for the fourth consecutive session, while US futures are slightly softer. Benchmark 10-year yields are mostly 1-2 bp lower, putting the US 10-year around 3.78%. A softer US dollar and interest rates are helping gold stabilize after falling to $1830 yesterday. The low for the year is closer to $1825. April WTI is steady after initially extending yesterday's recover from about $77.50 to about $79.75 today....
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