Sunday, February 26, 2023

"Nickel shows Indonesia how to escape the middle income trap"

Ha!

From Bloomberg via Mining.com, February 24: 

The value of Indonesia’s nickel exports surged tenfold in five years after it forced buyers to set up refineries in the country. Now Southeast Asia’s biggest economy plans to use that blueprint to catapult the nation into the ranks of higher-income economies by processing everything from copper to fish.

The goal is to double per-capita GDP to $10,000 by 2045, which would bring Indonesia close to the World Bank’s high-income threshold. At the same time, the shift would create new centers of growth outside Java, its richest and most populated island.

“We’re using nickel as the prototype,” said Investment Minister Bahlil Lahadalia. “It’s silly. We have the raw materials, but we sell it to be refined overseas then we import it back. Where did we leave our brain?”

President Joko Widodo points to the economic models of Taiwan and South Korea, two of only handful of nations that managed to escape the so-called middle-income trap by building manufacturing and raising productivity. For decades, Indonesia has relied on exports of raw commodities — an economic strategy prone to the so-called resources curse, where mineral rich nations suck in investment in mining during boom times, but suffer when commodities prices tumble.

The new roadmap to more onshore processing will begin with oil and gas this year, then fisheries. Down the line, Indonesia will only export refined palm oil, coconut products, timber, seaweed and even salt. The government estimates the drive could pull in $545 billion of investment — about half the country’s current nominal GDP.

“We used to sell the Indonesia story by the numbers: 280 million people, thousands of islands, and so on. That’s promoting history, not investment,” Lahadalia said. “Now we tell them: ‘What industry do you want? Here’s what you can make and here’s where you can do it.’”....

....MUCH MORE

Ha, I say!

If interested see January's "Rio Tinto–backed firm InoBat plans to build battery gigafactory in Serbia":....Although the story of why the deposit has not been mined is complicated (see links in intro if interested), one thing is certain, these resource-rich little countries want to be left with something much higher up the value chain than just a hole in the ground.

And February 8's "Indonesia's President Jokowi ‘confident’ Tesla Will Invest (TSLA)":

We've been pitching Indonesia for a while. The introduction to June 2021's "Indonesia and Coal":

An indigenous battery industry would capture some of the value-added from the country's world-class nickel resource. Elon Musk went to New Caledonia to secure a supply. He should have gone to Indonesia. And maybe built a gigafactory.

As we saw back in April regarding Sulawesi:

Tesla Inc.’s Elon Musk has said nickel is the metal that concerns him most as he looks to scale up battery-cell production, and last year he promised a “giant contract” for miners to encourage production. Without new sources of supply, the robust EV industry could face a critical shortage within a few years.....

Capture some of the downstream profits and you have a bit more wiggle room to deal with the coal.

Now we have two stories via Mining.com. First up, the headliner from Reuters, February 1:

Indonesian President Joko Widodo is confident Tesla Inc will finalize a deal to invest in a production facility in his country, having offered the US car maker incentives ranging from tax breaks to a concession to mine nickel.

Southeast Asia’s largest economy has been wooing Tesla to invest in battery and car manufacturing since 2020, seeking to leverage its rich reserves of nickel ore, which can be processed for use in EV batteries.

The president, widely known as Jokowi, has held talks with Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk twice, meeting him in person at his SpaceX facility in Texas last year and a telephone call, to try to secure a deal.

“I said to him that if you invest in Indonesia, I will give the concession of nickel,” Jokowi said, referring to Indonesia’s offer of a mining concession.

Other incentives include tax breaks and a subsidy scheme on EV purchases to build a market for Tesla in the world’s fourth most populous country, he said, adding that his ministers were finalizing the subsidies.

The president said he was “confident” Indonesia had the edge over other countries Tesla might be considering for investment because it has the largest nickel reserves and a big domestic market.

Jokowi said it was up to Tesla to take up the offer to mine nickel, underlining that Indonesia is open to investment in the EV battery and electric car supply chain.

“If they want to start from EV battery, it’s OK,” he added....

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And February 6:

Like Musk, nickel-rich Indonesia has high electric vehicle ambitions

Armed with the world’s largest reserves of nickel and a ban on the export of nickel ore, Indonesia is making itself indispensable for the electric vehicle industry, which uses the metal extensively.

In just three years, Indonesia has signed more than a dozen deals worth more than $15 billion for battery and electric vehicle production in the country with manufacturers including Hyundai Motor, LG Group and Foxconn.

Next up is the mammoth Tesla Inc, the world’s most valuable automaker. President Joko Widodo has pulled out all the stops to convince CEO Elon Musk to manufacture electric vehicles or batteries in the sprawling Southeast Asian archipelago.

“I’m very confident this industry will grow quickly, will grow very fast,” the president, popularly known as Jokowi, said in an interview last week.

Indonesia has a total of 21 million tonnes in proven reserves with nickel content, according to the US Geological Survey. That is nearly a quarter of the world’s reserves.

The country mined 1.4 million tonnes of nickel in January-November last year, according to the International Nickel Study Group. That’s far ahead of the second-biggest producer, the Philippines, which mined 290,000 tonnes in the same period, and more than double Indonesia’s output of 606,000 tonnes in 2018.

Jokowi banned exports of nickel ore in 2020, but allowed export of higher value nickel products – forcing companies to process and manufacture onshore.

Indonesia’s exports of processed nickel then swelled to more than $30 billion in 2022 from about $1 billion in 2015.

Indonesia is expected to account for half of the global production increase in nickel between 2021 and 2025, according to the International Energy Agency, as demand for electric vehicles surges. Each vehicle uses up to 40 kg of nickel....

....MUCH MORE
Previously on Indonesia:

 And very related: