Sunday, August 21, 2022

“Are Lockdowns Effective in Managing Pandemics?”

No.

And not only are they not effective, they may have claimed 20 times more life years than they purported to save.

Keeping in mind that one paper does not reveal "Truth", we are seeing more and more evidence that the public was stampeded into accepting measures that were ludicrous on their face, and seen to be so at the time they were implemented.

From MDPI's International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health via the U.S. National Institute's of Health, National Library of Medicine, July 29, 2022:

Abstract
The present coronavirus crisis caused a major worldwide disruption which has not been experienced for decades. The lockdown-based crisis management was implemented by nearly all the countries, and studies confirming lockdown effectiveness can be found alongside the studies questioning it. In this work, we performed a narrative review of the works studying the above effectiveness, as well as the historic experience of previous pandemics and risk-benefit analysis based on the connection of health and wealth. Our aim was to learn lessons and analyze ways to improve the management of similar events in the future. The comparative analysis of different countries showed that the assumption of lockdowns' effectiveness cannot be supported by evidence-neither regarding the present COVID-19 pandemic, nor regarding the 1918-1920 Spanish Flu and other less-severe pandemics in the past. The price tag of lockdowns in terms of public health is high: by using the known connection between health and wealth, we estimate that lockdowns may claim 20 times more life years than they save. It is suggested therefore that a thorough cost-benefit analysis should be performed before imposing any lockdown for either COVID-19 or any future pandemic. 

And from page 4:

3.1.2. Preparedness Plans
     It should be mentioned that the same conclusions—no clear benefit of lockdowns in case of pandemic—were made by national and international bodies before COVID-19 emerged. Namely, several governments prepared detailed plans of response to influenza-like pandemics years ago—see the programs of the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration (2007) [ 16 ], Israeli Ministry of Health (2007) [ 17] and more references in sect. II.4 of the Collection [ 4]. Israel probably had the most elaborate plan which relied on the unique experience of civil-military partnership (ref. II.4.4 in the Collection [4]). Noteworthy, the World Health Organization (WHO) published its comprehensive 91-page preparedness plan [6] in October 2019!
     All these response plans mentioned lockdowns, if at all, as a means of last resort only.
The WHO document, for example, explicitly mentioned that:
social distancing measures “can be highly disruptive” and should be carefully weighted
travel-related measures are “unlikely to be successful”; “border closures may be
considered only by small island nations in severe pandemics”
contact tracing and quarantine of exposed individuals are not recommended in any
circumstances.
All the above plans were abandoned without any serious discussion at the very beginning of the COVID-19 crisis: The authors failed to find a single mention of these plans in publications of national health ministries in either country. Lockdowns, border closures, contact tracing, and quarantines became the main instruments.....
....MUCH MORE (12 page PDF)