And beyond the weekly increase of $1.9 billion the MBS position is UP $22 Billion SINCE THE START OF QUANTITATIVE TIGHTENING THREE MONTHS AGO.
The two largest line items in the latest H.4.1:
1. Factors Affecting Reserve Balances of Depository Institutions
Millions of dollars
|
Reserve Bank credit, related items, and |
Averages of daily figures |
Wednesday |
||
|
Week ended |
Change from week ended |
|||
|
Aug 17, 2022 |
Aug 25, 2021 |
|||
|
Reserve Bank credit |
8,818,557 |
- 18,499 |
+ 494,653 |
8,816,154 |
|
Securities held outright1 |
8,431,925 |
- 9,668 |
+ 619,352 |
8,428,881 |
|
U.S. Treasury securities |
5,700,094 |
- 11,604 |
+ 360,260 |
5,700,628 |
|
Bills2 |
326,044 |
0 |
0 |
326,044 |
|
Notes and bonds, nominal2 |
4,901,267 |
- 13,057 |
+ 301,509 |
4,901,267 |
|
Notes and bonds, inflation-indexed2 |
374,719 |
0 |
+ 21,089 |
374,719 |
|
Inflation compensation3 |
98,064 |
+ 1,452 |
+ 37,661 |
98,598 |
|
Federal agency debt securities2 |
2,347 |
0 |
0 |
2,347 |
|
Mortgage-backed securities4 |
2,729,484 |
+ 1,936 |
+ 259,093 |
2,725,906 |
...MUCH MORE
The June 2 H.4.1
1. Factors Affecting Reserve Balances of Depository Institutions
Millions of dollars
|
Reserve Bank credit, related items, and |
Averages of daily figures |
Wednesday |
||
|
Week ended |
Change from week ended |
|||
|
May 25, 2022 |
Jun 2, 2021 |
|||
|
Reserve Bank credit |
8,879,041 |
- 21,738 |
+ 999,128 |
8,878,608 |
|
Securities held outright1 |
8,480,185 |
- 18,626 |
+1,131,110 |
8,480,572 |
|
U.S. Treasury securities |
5,770,391 |
+ 1,487 |
+ 667,933 |
5,770,779 |
|
Bills2 |
326,044 |
0 |
0 |
326,044 |
|
Notes and bonds, nominal2 |
4,974,862 |
- 601 |
+ 592,216 |
4,973,358 |
|
Notes and bonds, inflation-indexed2 |
381,463 |
+ 601 |
+ 38,607 |
382,966 |
|
Inflation compensation3 |
88,022 |
+ 1,487 |
+ 37,109 |
88,410 |
|
Federal agency debt securities2 |
2,347 |
0 |
0 |
2,347 |
|
Mortgage-backed securities4 |
2,707,446 |
- 20,114 |
+ 463,176 |
2,707,446 |
....MUCH MORE
The June 1 position was the supposed start date of the "QT". MBS position up $22.038 versus the Fed target of minus $17.5 billion per month, $52.5 billion for the quarter so off by $74.5 billion.
For the U.S. treasury instruments the idealized $90 billion came in at $70.297 billion, so behind by ~$20 bil.
As we've been pointing out since we started publicly tracking the numbers the problem is the monster the Fed created in the housing market by keeping mortgage rates so low that they caused a bubble that has resulted in house prices at least double where they would otherwise be and worse, created a political situation where they can't sell MBS's because they would destroy the Holy of Holies and bring down the wrath of the National Association of Realtors, the National Association of Home Builders, some 80 million homeowners and most fearsome of all, Blackstone and the rest of Wall Street.
And via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis' Fred Database, the total balance sheet including many smaller line items that aren't part of QT but do move the weekly totals around (we saw last week that fully half of that week's total decline was a decrease in interest due the Fed and other receivables)
- $8.915050 trillion - $8.851436 trillion = $63.614 billion total reduction vs the net reduction of $48.259 billion in the MBS and Treasury portfolios (meaning $15.355 billion in "other" reductions) and vs the idealized $47.5 billion per month/$142 billion for the quarter which the Fed said was their target.
- And starting September 1 we are told the targets increase to $60 billion per month for treasuries and $35 billion per month for the Mortgage Backed Securities.
If interested see also:
The Mortgage Backed Securities Trap The Federal Reserve Set For Itself, In One Chart
Former Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser: "Why The Fed Should Only Own Treasuries"
Ahead of Tomorrow's Personal Consumption Expenditures Inflation Report, A Reminder
Dylan Grice: "Crash, Then Boom"
Fed Purchases Of Mortgage Backed Securities Have Destroyed The Housing Market
Followup: Despite What The Federal Reserve Says, Financial Conditions Are Loosening, Not Tightening
