Friday, July 15, 2022

Why Isn't The Federal Reserve Shrinking Its Balance Sheet?

I don't know the answer to that but they seem very reluctant to follow their stated plan.

First up, from this week's H.4.1:

1. Factors Affecting Reserve Balances of Depository Institutions

Millions of dollars

Reserve Bank credit, related items, and
reserve balances of depository institutions at
Federal Reserve Banks

Averages of daily figures

Wednesday
Jul 13, 2022

Week ended
Jul 13, 2022

Change from week ended

Jul 6, 2022

Jul 14, 2021

Reserve Bank credit

 8,858,867

+    3,588

+  779,116

 8,860,493

Securities held outright1

 8,456,776

+    1,118

+  909,806

 8,457,212

U.S. Treasury securities

 5,745,093

+    1,111

+  531,926

 5,745,528

Bills2

   326,044

         0

         0

   326,044

Notes and bonds, nominal2

 4,941,958

         0

+  464,692

 4,941,958

Notes and bonds, inflation-indexed2

   384,342

         0

+   30,885

   384,342

Inflation compensation3

    92,749

+    1,111

+   36,350

    93,184

Federal agency debt securities2

     2,347

         0

         0

     2,347

Mortgage-backed securities4

 2,709,336

+        7

+  377,880

 2,709,337

 ....MUCH MORE

And from the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis' FRED Database the total asset side of the balance sheet which includes the much, much smaller line items after the MBS line:


 

Now I know that the asset roll-off will be choppy but total assets held by the Fed were actually up $4.016 Billion for the reporting week at $8.895867 Trillion vs. the prior week's $8.891851 Trillion.

More importantly we are now 45 days into a plan to shed $30 billion in treasuries per month and $17.5 billion in agency MBS's, an idealized $71.25 billion decrease for the month-and-a-half versus the actual decrease of $19.182 billion. 

Not only is the Fed not on track to hit their goals, they are falling further and further behind.

Here are our H.4.1 posts for last week: "Huzzah! The Fed's Balance Sheet Shrinkage Appears To Have Begun!", two weeks ago: "The Federal Reserve's Plan To Shrink Its Balance Sheet Does Not Appear To Be Going Very Well" and three weeks ago: "Fed Balance Sheet: Not Seeing The Reduction In Fannie/Freddie Mortgage-Backed Securities".

For reference the much ballyhooed May 4, 2022 press release: 

Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet

....The Committee intends to reduce the Federal Reserve's securities holdings over time in a predictable manner primarily by adjusting the amounts reinvested of principal payments received from securities held in the System Open Market Account (SOMA). Beginning on June 1, principal payments from securities held in the SOMA will be reinvested to the extent that they exceed monthly caps.

  • For Treasury securities, the cap will initially be set at $30 billion per month and after three months will increase to $60 billion per month. The decline in holdings of Treasury securities under this monthly cap will include Treasury coupon securities and, to the extent that coupon maturities are less than the monthly cap, Treasury bills.
  • For agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, the cap will initially be set at $17.5 billion per month and after three months will increase to $35 billion per month.....