From the BBC, July 15:
Satellites give clues about the coming global harvest
As harvest time looms for the world's main wheat producers, countries that import wheat are hoping for a bumper global crop so that record high prices might fall. But analysis on the health of crops around the world, shared with the BBC, suggests that's unlikely, and that Russia could be the only big winner.
From his farm three hours south-east of Paris, Sébastien Neveux is worried. Here in France's main wheat-producing region, the weather has been strange recently.
It was extremely dry in March, April and May, a crucial time for wheat crops in France which need moisture to pull minerals up from the ground. Then, in June, there was heavy rain and hail. It was too much, too late.
"I'll have lost 40% of this field because of drought and intense heat," says Mr Neveux. He estimates he'll lose 25% of his wheat crop overall.
Working with two companies that analyse data on crop health, the BBC has found that some of the world's main wheat producers could see weaker harvests than anticipated this year because of bad weather.
In the EU that could mean 4.7 million tonnes less wheat than last year, which is bad news for countries hoping to find alternatives to Ukrainian wheat.
The analysis looked at information from satellite images, which can determine how healthy a plant is by how much infrared light the plant reflects back at the satellites' cameras. That information is then cross-referenced with data about weather and soil moisture to indicate the potential harvest.
Standing in his wheat field, Mr Neveux pulls two stalks from the ground. One is long and golden, the other short and blackened. Rolling each ear between his palms, he blows away the husks to reveal the grains inside. The healthy plant has many plump grains, the other one has just a couple of shrivelled ones. It's disappointing.
"The grain won't have the right quality for milling flour. It'll have to go to cow or chicken feed. So I'll sell it for less," he says.
More than a third of the planet relies on wheat as a staple food. It provides more calories in the world's diet than any other single crop. And as the global population is growing, every year we have to produce more.
At the beginning of 2021 wheat prices were at a record high, thanks to a spike in demand after the coronavirus pandemic and bad harvests in some major exporting countries. Then Russia invaded Ukraine - the world's fifth biggest wheat exporter - and prices soared even higher, sparking concerns of a global hunger crisis.
According to analysis shared with the BBC by Kayrros and EarthDaily Analytics, three of the world's five major wheat exporters (the US, France and Ukraine) could see lower than expected yields this year....
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