Keeping in mind that shelter has only half the weighting in the PCE price index as it does in the CPI.
Additionally, since the current PCE inflation began in February 2021 the year-over-year figures are lowered by the base effects of starting from an already higher level. See graph after the jump.
From the Bureau of Economic Analysis, July 29:
Personal Income and Outlays, June 2022
Personal income increased $133.5 billion (0.6 percent) in June, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $120.4 billion (0.7 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $181.1 billion (1.1 percent).
The PCE price index increased 1.0 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.6 percent (table 9). Real DPI decreased 0.3 percent in June and real PCE increased 0.1 percent; goods increased 0.1 percent and services increased 0.1 percent (tables 5 and 7).
2022 Feb. Mar. Apr. May June Percent change from preceding month Personal income: Current dollars 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 Disposable personal income: Current dollars 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.7 Chained (2012) dollars 0.1 -0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.3 Personal consumption expenditures (PCE): Current dollars 0.6 1.2 0.5 0.3 1.1 Chained (2012) dollars 0.0 0.3 0.3 -0.3 0.1 Price indexes: PCE 0.5 0.9 0.2 0.6 1.0 PCE, excluding food and energy 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 Price indexes: Percent change from month one year ago PCE 6.3 6.6 6.3 6.3 6.8 PCE, excluding food and energy 5.3 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.8 Current-Dollar Measures
The increase in current-dollar personal income in June primarily reflected increases in compensation (led by private wages and salaries) and proprietors' income (mainly nonfarm) (table 3). Other current transfer receipts increased $12.9 billion in June, reflecting a legal settlement from corporate business to persons. The national income and product accounts record these settlements on an accrual basis in the month when the settlement is reached, regardless of when they are recorded on companies’ financial statements.
The $181.1 billion increase in current-dollar PCE in June reflected an increase of $94.9 billion in spending for goods and an increase of $86.2 billion in spending for services (table 3). Within goods, gasoline and other energy goods was the leading contributor to the increase. Within services, the largest contributors to the increase were spending for health care and for housing and utilities (mainly housing). Detailed information on monthly PCE spending can be found on Table 2.3.5U.
Personal outlays increased $186.5 billion in June (table 3). Personal saving was $944.5 billion in June and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 5.1 percent (table 1).
Prices
From the preceding month, the PCE price index for June increased 1.0 percent (table 9). Prices for goods increased 1.5 percent and prices for services increased 0.6 percent. Food prices increased 1.0 percent and energy prices increased 7.5 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.6 percent. Detailed monthly PCE price indexes can be found on Table 2.3.4U.
From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for June increased 6.8 percent (table 11). Prices for goods increased 10.4 percent and prices for services increased 4.9 percent. Food prices increased 11.2 percent and energy prices increased 43.5 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 4.8 percent from one year ago.....
....MUCH MORE
source: tradingeconomics.com
