Wednesday, July 27, 2022

The Fed's Interest Rate Move: Analysts React

As we did last month we will skip past the introductory remarks and go straight to the analysts.

From ZeroHedge: 

....Peter Bookcvar, Bleakly Financial Group

"The statement was a big yawner given that there were only modest changes to it relative to the June meeting.”

Anastasia Amoroso, iCapital’s chief investment strategist:

“There are few surprises in the 75-bps rate increase and the accompanying Fed statement. But one thing is clear -- the Fed still thinks this economy can withstand ‘ongoing increases’ in interest rates because while the economy is slowing, jobs growth is not yet stalling out. If there is any sense of an upcoming Fed pivot, there are no hints of it in this statement yet and looks like the Fed sees a runway to continue to raise rates.”

Sarah Hunt, portfolio manager at Alpine Woods Capital:

They see some weakness in labor markets, but also see the high inflation numbers, so it’s a very mixed situation since the ‘strong labor economy’ has been the justifier for faster moves. And a slowing labor economy may be what they want some signs of but they don’t want that to go too far.”

Omair Sharif at Inflation Insights:

“Despite the downgrading of current economic conditions, which was expected, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Chair repeat the idea that a 50-75 basis point move is the most likely path at the September meeting.”

Bloomberg economics"

“The unanimous FOMC decision to raise the interest rate by 75 basis at the July meeting sent a clear message: The Fed is nowhere close to declaring victory over inflation. While many are worried that the economy is teetering on the edge of recession, Fed officials appear to see the glass as half full, with a strong labor market allowing the economy to withstand rapid monetary tightening. Bloomberg Economics thinks there’s little chance that the Fed will pause its rate hikes later this year, as markets currently expect.”

Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Research:

“All I learned from the statement: The Fed marked down its growth assessment and still ended up going as much as it did in June.”

Peter Tchir, Academy Securities

Points out that Esther George had wanted to raise by only 50 basis points last time around and voted for 75 this month. “Honestly no idea what would have made someone more hawkish.”

Diane Swonk, KPMG Chief Economist

Powell needs to be determined in his press conference in addressing the risk of middle-class incomes being damaged for years to come unless the Fed succeeds in bringing down inflation. Swonk says the unemployment rate will likely need to climb to 5.5% -- from just 3.6% today -- in this fight....

....MUCH MORE (including the ZH intro)