Friday, July 1, 2022

The Federal Reserve's Plan To Shrink Its Balance Sheet Does Not Appear To Be Going Very Well

From the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis' FRED database:



The Fed held $8.915050 Trillion on June 1, 2022 and $8.913553 Trillion on June 29, the cut-off date for this week's H.4.1. This is a net reduction of $1.497 billion.

From the Fed's May 4, 2022 press release: 

Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet

....The Committee intends to reduce the Federal Reserve's securities holdings over time in a predictable manner primarily by adjusting the amounts reinvested of principal payments received from securities held in the System Open Market Account (SOMA). Beginning on June 1, principal payments from securities held in the SOMA will be reinvested to the extent that they exceed monthly caps.

  • For Treasury securities, the cap will initially be set at $30 billion per month and after three months will increase to $60 billion per month. The decline in holdings of Treasury securities under this monthly cap will include Treasury coupon securities and, to the extent that coupon maturities are less than the monthly cap, Treasury bills.
  • For agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, the cap will initially be set at $17.5 billion per month and after three months will increase to $35 billion per month.....

So, running a bit behind schedule.

Here are the first few line items of the latest H.4.1:

H.4.1

Factors Affecting Reserve Balances of Depository Institutions and Condition Statement of Federal Reserve Banks

June 30, 2022

 

1. Factors Affecting Reserve Balances of Depository Institutions

Millions of dollars

Reserve Bank credit, related items, and
reserve balances of depository institutions at
Federal Reserve Banks

Averages of daily figures

Wednesday
Jun 29, 2022

Week ended
Jun 29, 2022

Change from week ended

Jun 22, 2022

Jun 30, 2021

Reserve Bank credit

 8,889,619

-   11,205

+  850,130

 8,876,712

Securities held outright1

 8,486,638

-    9,512

+  983,899

 8,475,608

U.S. Treasury securities

 5,763,729

+      573

+  587,886

 5,763,933

Bills2

   326,044

         0

         0

   326,044

Notes and bonds, nominal2

 4,964,079

-        3

+  518,736

 4,964,057

Notes and bonds, inflation-indexed2

   382,966

         0

+   33,190

   382,966

Inflation compensation3

    90,640

+      576

+   35,960

    90,865

Federal agency debt securities2

     2,347

         0

         0

     2,347

Mortgage-backed securities4

 2,720,563

-   10,084

+  396,014

 2,709,328

....MUCH MORE

note: the change figures in columns two and three are for the week and the year comparisons whereas the graph is for the month of June, 2022.

Previously: