From Creighton University's Heider College of Business, January 3, supply managers speak up
December survey highlights:
- Creighton’s regional Business Conditions Index climbed into a range indicating very healthy manufacturing growth.
- Supply chain delays worsened in December.
- Approximately one-third of supply managers expect supply chain disruptions to get worse for the first six months of 2022.
- Economic confidence soars off weakness in November.
- Approximately half of supply managers expect the Omicron strain of Covid-19 to slow deliveries.
OMAHA, Neb. (Jan. 3, 2022) – Since declining to a record low in April of last year, the Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index, a leading economic indicator for the nine-state region stretching from Minnesota to Arkansas, has remained above growth neutral for 19 of 20 months.
Overall Index: The Business Conditions Index, which uses the identical methodology as the national ISM, ranges between 0 and 100, expanded to a strong 64.6 from November’s healthy 60.2.
“Creighton’s monthly survey results indicate the region is adding manufacturing activity at a positive pace, and that regional growth will remain solid. In terms of supply chain disruptions and bottlenecks for the first half of 2022, approximately one-third of supply managers expect delays to worsen with only one in six anticipating improvements,” said Ernie Goss, Ph.D., director of Creighton University’s Economic Forecasting Group and the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics in the Heider College of Business.
“Regarding the Omicron variant, approximately half expect this strain of Covid-19 to slow deliveries while roughly 42.3 anticipate little or no impact on supply deliveries,” said Goss.
Employment: The regional employment index remained above growth neutral for December, but dropped to 59.3 from 61.1 in November.
“Despite healthy growth over the past year, compared to its pre-pandemic level, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics employment data indicate that the region has lost 25,000 manufacturing jobs, or 1.8%,” said Goss.
Other December comments from supply mangers were:
“(I) am forecasting stagflation in 2022.”
“Biden economic policies are everything we feared they would be.”
Wholesale Prices: The wholesale inflation gauge for the month declined to 82.7 from December’s 92.9. “Creighton’s monthly survey is tracking the highest and most consistent inflationary pressures in more than a quarter of a century of conducting the survey,” said Goss....
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