Saturday, January 22, 2022

With Germany Basically Out Of The Military Alliance Would Europeans Fight For Ukraine?

And if the Europeans wouldn't why on earth would the Americans?

First it was Germany's demand that Britain avoid German airspace to deliver weapons to Ukraine:

And then it was Germany's demand that Estonia not ship formerly East German weapons to Kiev (below).

We post the announcement of the German–Soviet Commercial Agreement of 1940 in most of our stories on Nord Stream 2 and/or Polish opposition not simply as a sly reference back to the 1939 Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact and its secret annex on how Germany and the USSR would split-up Eastern Europe:

"Berlin, Moscow Negotiate New Trade Accord".
—Reading Eagle
Feb. 12, 1940

but because it is being repeated in this century.

And I haven't, since 2018, been posting on the close personal relationship between Putin and Schröder only because, well, true bromance:

...As the kids say: Find someone to look at you the way Putin looks at Gerhard Schröder.

They also hug a lot.
 A lot.

Herr Schröder was Germany's Chancellor before Mutti came in.
Gazprom has paid him a lot of money. 

but because it sets the table for what is being served up.

And this bit in 2021 from Steinmeier: "We owe Russia the Nord Stream pipeline over Nazi atrocities, says German president".

Rather we post because we are trying to tease out how the cards will fall should tensions boil over. And with this latest from the Wall Street Journal the answer is crystal clear:

 WSJ  Updated Jan. 21, 2022 3:20 pm ET 
Germany Blocks NATO Ally From Transferring Weapons to Ukraine

Refusal to permit Estonia to transfer artillery that originated in Germany points to strains in Western alliance over Ukraine 

Germany is blocking North Atlantic Treaty Organization ally Estonia from giving military support to Ukraine by refusing to issue permits for German-origin weapons to be exported to Kyiv as it braces for a potential Russian invasion.

Unlike the U.S., Britain, Poland and other allies, the German government has declined to export lethal weapons directly to Ukraine.

In the case of Estonia, a small country on Russia’s northern border, Berlin is also refusing to allow a third country to send artillery to Ukraine because the weaponry originated in Germany, according to Estonian and German officials.

The issue is being seen by Western security specialists and Ukraine as a test of Berlin’s arms-transfer policy during a mounting crisis in Europe and points to the difficulties the U.S. and its European allies are facing in forging a common response to Russia’s military buildup near Ukraine and demands.

“Germany, they have a lot of hesitation to deliver to us,” Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.

German officials said the impasse results from a longstanding policy regarding arms exports to tense regions.

“The principle governing arms exports is always the same—whether they come directly from Germany or from third countries—and no permission has been issued at this stage,” a German government spokesman said. “It is not possible to estimate the outcome of the process at this moment,” he added.

An Estonian government official said that his government is still trying to persuade Germany to change its mind....


With those cards on the table it would be stupid for the frontline countries, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary or Romania to do anything to defend Ukraine, much less risk a single soldier's life in the name of NATO.

In the case of Poland it would be doubly stupid considering their history with the Ukrainian frenemy and the fact that huge chunks of eastern Polish territory annexed by the Soviets remain with Ukraine.