From Artemis August 6:
In what may be taken as a positive sign of what’s to come for the insurance, reinsurance and insurance-linked securities (ILS) community, two of the main Atlantic hurricane forecast teams have reduced their seasonal forecast numbers.
But their landfall predictions are still elevated, meaning the chances of a damaging season remain.
The Colorado State University tropical forecasting team still expect an above-average level of activity during the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, while the Tropical Storm Risk team is now calling for something closer to normal.
The reasons for the reductions appear to be largely due to time having passed since the last, while conditions appear roughly the same in the Atlantic.
Both of the forecast teams had increased their forecast numbers in July, largely to factor in the activity already seen in the Atlantic hurricane basin.
But now that we’ve had a quieter period, both teams have dropped their forecasts for named tropical storms and hurricanes back down again.
While we say this could be seen as a positive sign, of course seasonal hurricane forecasts are really only directional at best, giving those in insurance, reinsurance catastrophe bonds and insurance-linked securities (ILS) an idea of what may come over the course of the hurricane season.
In reality, what matters is the direction of travel for any named storms that form, whether they get the chance to intensify and make landfall in highly urbanised and populated regions, where industry losses are likely to be more significant and potentially impact reinsurance and ILS positions.
At the last forecast update in early July, the tropical storm and hurricane research meteorologists at Colorado State University increased their forecast for activity during the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season to include 20 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes, with accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 160.
Now, their August update lowers these figures, to 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes, with accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 150....
....MUCH MORE
The current North Atlantic ACE is 1.13 with the Global number almost exactly average. (table updates daily)
And from the National Hurricane Center:
note the disturbance on the African coast.
See also August 4's "Hurricane Watch: Model Runs of Storms Coming Off Africa Over the Next Six Weeks"
