Thursday, August 19, 2021

"Expanding China’s Central Asia Playbook to Afghanistan"

This piece is from Jamestown's "China Brief" program. If interested their "Eurasia Daily Monitor" is also worthy of, at minimum, a scan of the headlines if not a deeper dive.
And a heads-up, we introduced one link with:
From the always interesting (proceed with your VPN if paranoid) Jamestown Foundation:....

From The Jamestown Foundation's China Brief, August 17:

Introduction

For almost 30 years, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has deployed various strategies to increase its economic and political influence in Central Asia. In 1994, then-Premier Li Peng suggested a plan to develop economic connectivity and “revive the old Silk Road” (Xinhua, December 25, 2013). This paved the way for a China-Kazakhstan oil pipeline which became operational in 2005 and was followed in 2009 by a China-Central Asia gas pipeline reaching Turkmenistan. With these pipelines, China has gradually undermined Central Asia’s energy export reliance on Russia (a legacy of the Soviet Union). In addition, China-Europe cargo rail lines via Kazakhstan offer Central Asian economies the quickest access to sea-based trade through Chinese territories and have played a significant role in growing trade linkages between China and the region. State-owned Chinese companies have repaired and modernized a number of decaying Soviet infrastructure projects throughout Central Asia and helped to transfer some industrial capacity crucial to individual economies, such as aluminum processing and renewable energy. China is likely to deploy the same investment-driven playbook used in Central Asia under the pretext of post-war reconstruction in the Taliban’s  re-established Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan after advances in Kabul on the eve of August 15 (AP, August 15).

While efforts to integrate the economies of Central Asia with China have boosted development, quick and easy Chinese investments have also furthered elite-level corruption across the region.[1] This has benefited China, allowing it to leverage economic ties to attain its key political goal in the region—maintaining the territorial integrity of Xinjiang. Beginning in the early 2000s, Central Asian states wary of the independence movement across the border suppressed ethnic Uyghur associations in their territories. To date, no Central Asian state officials have dared to voice concern for the treatment of ethnic minorities in Xinjiang, a neighboring region with a strong history of shared culture. Both Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have been reluctant to accept ethnic Kazakh and Kyrgyz refugees from across the border, and local news have reported about secret agreements between Chinese border guards and their Central Asian counterparts to detain and repatriate any people that cross illegally (Azattyk, January 13, 2015; Azattyk, August 12, 2016).

Taliban and Beijing: An Honest Beginning?

In the midst of the American troop withdrawal, the Taliban in Afghanistan have recaptured almost all of the country, entering the capital and expressing clear gestures to establish itself as a legitimate ruling party. Despite the possibility of small-scale resistance from the Afghan Army and potential in-fighting within the Taliban, a Taliban-led regime is likely to last, especially with the support of China in post-war reconstruction. Understanding this reality, China has recently stepped up its efforts to ensure that the Taliban understands its will to secure and control Xinjiang, offering promises of economic investment and international recognition in return for regional stability.

On July 28, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, one of the Taliban’s key founders, led a delegation to Beijing. The agenda of Baradar’s meeting with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi was clear. China has asked the Taliban to “cut ties completely with the East Turkestan Movement,” which China considers to be a terrorist organization seeking independence in Xinjiang from Beijing (PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs, July 28).[2] A large number of foreign fighters with a variety of affiliations are present in Afghanistan, and the Taliban’s ability to oversee and control these groups is in doubt (UN Security Council, May 20). Nonetheless, the Taliban delegation provided reassurance that Afghanistan will not harbor the group, as it hopes to develop friendly relations with China and secure a role for Chinese investments in post-war reconstruction.....

....MUCH MORE

Some of our prior visits to Jamestown:
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