Which suggests, using our "What's on TV" model (backtested to yesterday) total damage in the $40 to $50 billion range.
From Artemis:
Hurricane Ida’s insurance and reinsurance industry loss may fall between $15 billion and $25 billion based on early indications from modelling data, according to specialist ILS manager Twelve Capital.
The Zurich-headquartered investment manager is another that is particularly proactive in keeping its investors informed and shares some of this information more widely.
Managing portfolios of catastrophe bonds, collateralised reinsurance and private ILS, plus insurance related debt and equities, Twelve Capital’s strategies are broadly exposed to industry loss events.
But in the case of major hurricane Ida, which made landfall yesterday in Louisiana, Twelve Capital anticipates a manageable impact.
Twelve Capital said it has received modelling information from a variety of model vendors and which its team has now analysed.
“These first early indications point towards an insured loss of around USD 15-25bn for the insurance industry,” the ILS fund manager explained.
This aligns with what our sources have been saying.
As we explained over the weekend, an insurance and reinsurance market loss of above $10 billion has been anticipated since Sunday.
This morning we went into more detail, explaining that $15 billion to $20 billion, perhaps a little higher, is seen as a reasonable area to expect loss estimates to converge in the short-term.
However, we also highlighted a range of challenges that could amplify losses from hurricane Ida and drive a more challenging claims environment, which may drive loss creep longer-term. So an ultimate industry loss of above $20 billion certainly seems possible....
....MUCH MORE
