Thursday, December 17, 2020

La Niña and Worldwide Precipitation Forecast

Following on "U.S. Drought Moving East, Crosses 98th Meridian", three graphics from IRI/Columbia Uni.

First up, the plume of model predictions for the ENSO 3.4 area of the Pacific (5°N - 5°S; 120°- 170°W): La Niña shifting to neutral conditions over the next 4-6 months:

https://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/figure4.png

This was a fairly deep La Niña, bottoming at around a 1.5°C temperature anomaly:

https://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/figure2.png 

And the precipitation probability map for the next three months. Still dry in the U.S. Southwest/Mexico; wet in Australia:

https://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/net_asmt_nmme/2020/dec2020/images/JFM21_World_pcp.gif