Tuesday, December 15, 2020

"A Huge Rally in Food Prices Is Stoking Record Fertilizer Demand" (NTR; MOS)

Nutrien  and Mosaic are the big dogs in North America, Belaruskali and Uralkali elsewhere. 

Yara does nitrogen (ammonia)

From Bloomberg, December 9::

Fertilizer producers are next in line to benefit from rising crop prices, with farmers poised to plant more acres in 2021.

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For the world’s handful of companies that produce potash -- a potassium-rich fertilizer mined underground from evaporated sea beds -- it is the light at the end of the tunnel following several volatile years. Bloomberg’s Green Markets pegs global potash demand at a record in 2021, while Morningstar Inc. says it will likely set a new “high watermark.”

Farmers’ incomes in the U.S. and Canada are up from a year earlier, boosted by crop prices that surged to multi-year highs on the back of strong demand from China and by pandemic-related government stimulus. As farmers invest their profits back into their farms and expand their plantings, they’ll need more fertilizer.

“That was a false start with the pandemic and all the talk of a terrible year, but now we see all the vital signs,” Pedro Farah, chief finance officer of Canada’s Nutrien Ltd., said during a presentation last week.

Optimism follows a challenging couple of years. In 2020, La Nina weather patterns scorched key South American growing regions, a derecho system pummeled crops in the U.S. Midwest, and a global health crisis disrupted food chains. This followed a year of sagging feed demand as China’s African swine fever outbreak created a shortage of pork, the country’s protein staple.

Unlike other fertilizers such as nitrogen, which commercial farmers typically apply annually, potash can be used less when finances are lean. It helps plants strengthen, use water efficiently, fight disease and deter insects.

Nutrien, the world’s biggest potash producer last year according to data compiled by Bloomberg, expects 2020 to be its best year “ever” for sales of the product, Chuck Magro, the company’s chief executive officer, told investors last month. The company forecast global potash demand was 65 million to 67 million metric tons for the year, roughly in line with an estimate from Russia’s Uralkali PJSC, a top-three global producer, and expects most major suppliers are sold out for the rest of 2020....

....MUCH MORE