Natural Gas: Why the Commercials May Want to Get Up And Get Out—The Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event Appears To Be Fizzling

As mentioned in the outro from November 27's ""U.S. winter temperatures for every El Niño since 1950"": 

2) There are signs the arctic may be setting up for a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event that would push polar air down to lower latitudes.

The question, should the SSW occur, is does the cold air go to North America or Europe/Eurasia.

Well, here's a dandy overview of what's going on from Severe Weather Europe, but first a quick explainer of what we were concerned with a couple weeks ago. A SSW is one of the most dramatic events in meteorology with temperatures rising as much as 50° C. This has the effect of breaking up the circumpolar jet stream that circles the pole (duh) and acts as a wall between the very cold polar air and the warmer air of the lower latitudes. When the wall breaks down you get more of the North-South meridional jet stream we've been babbling about for the last month which brings the arctic cold deep into the continents and freezes our collective tushies. With all that in mind, here's Severe Weather EU:

*Monthly outlook* The stratospheric polar vortex will survive all attacks and is coming at us with a vengeance! Late December and January are expected to be milder, with only brief cold episodes!

The stratospheric polar vortex is coming at us with a vengeance! It was under a lot of pressure lately and was fighting for its existence. Being attacked by many pressure and temperatures waves, it survived them all and is now ready to power up.

We were monitoring the stratospheric warming event as it was developing. The event did materialize and it will weaken the polar vortex. We emphasized in our updates that the warming phases must be persistent. That depends on their source, which is lower down, in the troposphere, where our weather is. The pressure changes there have become unfavorable to send more strong waves up into the stratosphere. Images (weatheriscool.com) show the current warming and the “anti-vortex” developing on the Pacific side.

The warming will not be persistent enough to cause more severe damage to the polar vortex. It will run out of fuel, with the Pacific anti-vortex also weakening and making room for the polar vortex to grow.

We can track the current pressure waves as they moved from the higher levels down through the stratosphere, reaching the lower levels. At the same time, lower pressure is appearing again at the top of the stratosphere, trending downwards, as the vortex re-organizes.....

*****

What it all means:

....The stratospheric polar vortex, now spinning, will gather strength and start to cool. Colder the polar vortex gets, the stronger it is. Temperature in the very core is expected to drop to below -90°C, which is near the lowest that it was reached in any December. Stratospheric polar jet stream will reorganize and spin around the hemisphere, with wind speeds over 300km/h.....

 ....What all this means for our weather?

The stratospheric polar vortex will survive all the warming/pressure attacks. The warming was not persistent enough to collapse the vortex. It will now start to power-up, getting colder and spinning faster. Polar vortex will spin faster in the higher levels first, and then powering downwards, like a tornado. Eventually, it will influence the lower levels. The effects will not be seen immediately, but the sign to look for is lower pressure in the North Atlantic ocean and over the North pole. Mid to late December is expected to bring mild weather across Europe and central parts of the United States, influenced by these dynamics.....

....MUCH MORE 

Severe Weather Europe home

Soooo....what to look for in natural gas?
It obviously has to trade up.

Huh?
Because, as pointed out in last night's "Chinese firms offer to resell LNG cargoes due to weak demand" the commercials are long futures and to facilitate their exit they need higher prices.

And right on cue the front futures are up 0.034 at 2.277 (from 2.25 in the earlier post) and this 1% up-move is in the face of today's storage report.

I'm a commercial, get me out of here!

Besides lowering the risk of frostbitten backsides, keeping the cold waaay up north is good for the arctic ice cap.
Win - win!

See also Dec. 6: "So You Want to Be a Natural Gas Trader?"