Friday, December 6, 2019

So You Want to Be a Natural Gas Trader?

Trade this.
Here's a temperature anomaly map for Dec. 5 through (forecasted) December 21:


As we've been saying for a couple months, Jet Stream!

"The market is trading off the cold snap and the cold snap is not going to last" because we are currently experiencing a meridional (north - south) jet stream that progresses in stately fashion from California to New York, alternating cold and warm:

https://www.e-education.psu.edu/meteo3/sites/www.e-education.psu.edu.meteo3/files/images/lesson7/jet_regimes0706.gif
The meridional pattern can set up a nice long-then-short-then long sequence in natural gas futures trading.
Except when it dips too far and you have Texas guzzling gas like Minnesota. Or if the pattern stalls and the warmth is delayed.
Or if it changes to a zonal pattern.
January futures: 2.412  down 0.015
Finally: