One consideration that we are not seeing get enough play is the dollar denominated debt that Chinese companies have issued. More below but first up the South China Morning Post:
And back to the knock-on effect of currency moves on debt, from July 2:
- Beijing’s decision to let yuan fall below key 7.0 level against US dollar means it has decided to use yuan as tool to fight the trade war, analysts said
- Some analysts see yuan weakening to 7.2 to the US dollar, about a 5 per cent depreciation from its exchange rate before the start of the trade war
The decline of China’s yuan on Monday to its lowest level in 11 years against the US dollar could continue into 2020 amid the apparent shift in its policy stance by the Chinese authorities, who are showing increasing reluctance to provide concessions to resolve its trade war with the United States.The Chinese currency’s drop has also rattled the currency market, sending 11 regional currencies lower.The yuan slid 1.3 per cent to 7.0298 against the dollar on Monday in response to President Donald Trump’s threat to impose a new 10 per cent tariff on the US$300 billion of Chinese imports not yet subject to sanctions, effective from September 1, raising risks to the mainland’s slowing economy. China has vowed to retaliate if the US went ahead with the new tariffs.The break in the yuan below the key threshold of 7.0 to the US dollar, analysts said, was likely to be a deliberate decision made by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, which has now decided that the currency can be part of its arsenal in fighting the trade war.It was also a reversal from Chinese policymakers’ steadfast defence of the 7.0 level in recent years, including last year in the early months of the trade war and in 2016 after the stock market rout and sharp capital outflows in 2015. Those defences had also been a message of good faith to the Americans that Beijing had no intent to “weaponise” the exchange rate of the yuan, also known as the renminbi (RMB).In a tweet on Monday, Trump hit out at the yuan’s decline, calling it “currency manipulation”. “This is a major violation which will greatly weaken China over time!” he tweeted.Still, if there was a desire by the PBOC to “shift the [dollar rate against the yuan] higher”, it was better sooner rather than at the end of the year, said Cliff Tan, east Asian head of Global Markets Research at MUFG, a Japanese bank....MUCH MORE
China Has $3 Trillion of Dollar Denominated Debt. That Is A Potential Disaster
China is in a bit of a bind with the yuan. While devaluing would indeed offset the tariffs, it would also increase both the interest expense and maturity pay-off cost of all that dollar denominated debt.
More after the jump.
China Has $3 Trillion of Dollar Denominated Debt. That Is A Potential Disaster
One of the most dangerous situations in finance.*
From the South China Morning Post, November 16, 2018:
China is underestimating its US$3 trillion dollar debt and this could trigger a financial crisis, says economist...MUCH MORE
Property developers and other mainland companies and investors that have borrowed dollar-denominated debt at low US interest rates are now facing repayment problems due to Federal Reserve rate increases and stronger greenback
That was nine months ago, this is important kids.
