Hurricane Watch: "All Quiet in the Atlantic: Dry, Stable Air Rules"

Usually I hold off but this year I started babbling about the Saharan Air Layer on the first day of the season, June 1.

From Weather Underground's Category 6 blog (also on blogroll at right under its old name, Wunderblog during the season):

Above: Saharan Air Layer analysis for 8 am EDT August 12, 2019. The orange colors show dry air from Africa’s Sahara Desert covering large portions of the tropical Atlantic, including most of the Caribbean Sea. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS.

With the peak portion of the Atlantic hurricane season nearly upon us, the Atlantic is quiet this week, thanks to a large amount of dry, stable air. The dry air is largely due to the Saharan Air Layer, which has spread westwards from the Sahara Desert across most of the tropical Atlantic. In addition, the large-scale atmospheric circulation currently favors sinking motion over the region; sinking air warms and dries as it descends, creating dry, stable air that suppresses hurricanes (see Figure 5 below).

Figure 1. Departure of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic of August 12, 2019. SSTs in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the coast of Central America, were slightly above average.  Image credit: Levi Cowan, tropicaltidbits.com.

Atlantic SSTs are favorable for development

We are nearing the seasonal peak in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Northern Hemisphere, and ocean temperatures all across the tropical and subtropical Atlantic are above the 26.5°C (80°F) threshold typically needed to sustain a hurricane. Ocean temperatures will continue to warm until the first week of September, when SSTs typically peak for the year. SSTs in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the coast of Central America, are currently about 0.2°C (0.36°F) above average. This is favorable for development of hurricanes, though not greatly so....

....MUCH MORE

 And that June 1 piece:

Re/Insurance: With Today's Start of the Official Hurricane Season, A Look At Various Forecasts

The most interesting factor at the moment, more interesting even than the SAL (Saharan Air Layer) if you can believe that, is the El El Niño/Southern Oscillation. 
(just kidding about the SAL, it doesn't really come into play until those long-haul Cape Verde storms start running later in the season)
As noted a couple weeks ago in "Hurricane Watch: Australia's Bureau of Meteorology Lowers Odds of Full-Blown El Niño":...

Next week: more on the Madden Juliaen Oscillation.
....I'm not sure why but I'm so excited, and I just can't hide it...