Tropical storm Barry brews, as hurricane forecasts stay static
Two of the main Atlantic hurricane forecasts have been kept almost static, one citing the slightly reduced chances of an El Niño influence during the season ahead, while at the same time a low pressure disturbance has a good chance of becoming tropical storm Barry in the Gulf later this week.....MUCH MORE
The hurricane forecasters from insurance and reinsurance industry backed Tropical Storm Risk has made the smallest of tweaks, sticking with their prediction for 12 named tropical storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes of Category 3 or greater to form during the 2019 Atlantic storm season.
This team have lifted their forecast for Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) by a single point to 89 for the season as a whole, while their forecast in general calls for Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity of around 10% below the 1950-2018 long-term norm and about 20% below the recent 2009-2018 10-year norm.
Meanwhile, the Colorado State University hurricane forecast team led by Phil Klotzbach calls for a slightly higher 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes, but notes the potentially diminishing chances of El Niño being an influence during the year.
The team wrote, “We believe that the odds of a weak El Niño persisting through August-October have diminished slightly. However, neither ENSO nor tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures look particularly favorable for an active season. The probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean remains near its long-term average.”...
