Agriculture: The Crops Are Either Planted Or Won't Be, So What's Next?
There are two big concerns that farmers and ag-econ types are talking about now that the plant/don't-plant-and-take-the-prevented-planting-money decisions are being finalized and they are both weather/climate related.And the headline story from AgWeb, July 9:
The first is what happens over the course of growing season—too hot/dry/wet/cold—it's always something.
The second is the risk of an early frost before harvest.
For the first concern we track soil moisture and growing degree days and all the the factors that go into how much food you get at the end of the season.
Fortunately the USDA points us in the right direction with the Weekly Crop and Weather Bulletin....
Mother Nature has thrown farmers curve ball after curve ball in the 2019 growing season. First a long, late and historically wet winter delayed planting for much of the Corn Belt. Now, many farmers are facing hot dry weather and losing sleep over the thought of an early frost. Unfortunately, Kirk Heinz and Michael Clark of BAMWX.com validated those fears on an episode of AgriTalk this week.
“Into the Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley area, if you can envision from there to the desert southwest with a with a void in the middle, from [tropical storm] Barry, that's where the risk is keeping things too dry,” Heinz explained adding a pressure ridge will continue to keep that area dry between now and July 23. “It's been wet, but you know, hey, we're kind of turning things around.”Yesterday I promised more on growing degree days, knowing the Weekly report would be coming out but then reality intruded on blogging and, well here it is, 16 hours late but 44 pages of statistical goodies:
Basically, the areas that have been swampiest will be the hottest and driest until at least July 23. What’s special about that date? Well, forecasting models used by Clark and Heinz show that would be the timeframe where a weather pattern shake-up could occur.
“That that would be the date where we start raising the red flags in terms of, if that does not develop, we could see this extended warmer, drier period linger longer, deeper into July and maybe even early August,” Clark explains. “That's why it's a top priority for us.”....MORE
Weekly Crop and Weather Bulletin, July 9, 2019
