Friday, April 28, 2017

Natural Gas: EIA Weekly Supply/Demand Report

$3.2330 last off 0.0060.
From the Energy Information Administration:
...June Nymex contract flat. At the Nymex, the May 2017 contract expired yesterday at $3.142/MMBtu, down 4¢ from last Wednesday. The June 2017 contract remained unchanged Wednesday to Wednesday at $3.271/MMBtu. The price of the 12-month strip, which averages the June 2017 through May 2018 futures contracts, increased 1¢ to $3.370/MMBtu.

Supply flat. According to data from PointLogic, the average total supply of natural gas remained the same as the previous report week, averaging 74.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). Dry natural gas production remained constant week over week. Average net imports from Canada decreased by 2% from last week.

Demand rises slightly. Total U.S. consumption of natural gas rose by 2% compared with the previous report week, according to data from PointLogic. Week over week, power burn declined by 2%, industrial sector consumption increased by 1%, and residential/commercial sector consumption increased by 12%. Natural gas exports to Mexico increased 24% as maintenance on the NET Mexico Pipeline concluded over the weekend, and export flows were restored on the line.

Because of maintenance on the NET Mexico pipeline, the United States made its first two shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Mexico's Altamira import terminal in the Gulf of Mexico. Mexico has been the largest recipient of U.S. LNG exports, with 20 cargoes shipped since the start of LNG exports in February 2016, but all shipments prior to these two went to the Manzanillo terminal on Mexico's west coast.

U.S. LNG exports. Natural gas pipeline deliveries to the Sabine Pass liquefaction terminal averaged 1.1 Bcf/d for the report week, 43% lower than in the previous week. Three vessels (combined LNG-carrying capacity of 11.4 Bcf) departed Sabine Pass last week (Thursday to Wednesday).
Last week, the proposed Golden Pass LNG liquefaction terminal received an approval from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to export up to 2.21 Bcf/d of LNG to non-Free Trade Agreement (FTA) countries for 20 years. To date, DOE has authorized 19.2 Bcf/d of LNG exports to non-FTA countries.
more price data

Mild temperatures result in higher-than-average net injections into working gas storage. Net injections into storage totaled 74 Bcf, compared with the five-year (2012–16) average net injection of 57 Bcf and last year's net injections of 64 Bcf during the same week. Net injections into working gas during the storage week were the largest reported so far in the 2017 injection season and the largest reported this early in the refill season since April 17, 2015.

Working gas levels are 14% lower than last year's record levels, but well ahead of the five-year average. Working gas levels are 358 Bcf lower than last year's levels at this time. This year-over-year deficit prevails in each of the regions of the Lower 48 states. The South Central region has the largest year-over-year deficit of 131 Bcf. The Midwest and Pacific regions are both 48 Bcf lower than last year's levels. In contrast, working gas levels are 299 Bcf higher than the five-year average in the Lower 48 states and are higher than the five-year average in all regions except the East and the Pacific regions, which are 53 Bcf and 15 Bcf lower than the five-year average, respectively. The South Central region accounts for 222 Bcf of the surplus compared with the five-year average, and the Midwest region is 117 Bcf higher than the five-year average.

The January futures price is trading at a premium over the current spot price, but well behind last year's level at this time. During the most recent storage week, the average natural gas spot price at the Henry Hub was $3.09/MMBtu, while the Nymex futures price of natural gas for delivery in January 2018 averaged $3.62/MMBtu, a difference of 54¢. The premium was $1.10 a year ago. The price premium provides incentives for continued injections of natural gas into storage....MUCH MORE

U.S. natural gas consumption - Gas Week: (4/20/17 - 4/26/17)

Average daily values (Bcf/d):

this week
last week
last year
U.S. consumption
Mexico exports
Pipeline fuel use/losses
LNG pipeline receipts
Total demand