Friday, April 21, 2017

Natural Gas: EIA Weekly Supply/Demand Report

Natty is oddly restrained the last couple weeks.

Front futures up 1.9 cents at 3.1780.
The price at the time of posting the report last week: $3.1890.
To quote some insurance salesman from Omaha:

“Now I’m known as a long-term investor and a patient guy, but that is not my idea of a big move.”*
-Warren Buffett 

From the Energy Information Administration:

(For the Week Ending Wednesday, April 19, 2017)
  • Natural gas spot price movements around the United States were mixed this report week (Wednesday, April 12 to Wednesday, April 19). The Henry Hub spot price rose from $2.99 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $3.12/MMBtu yesterday.
  • At the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), the May 2017 contract price was flat Wednesday to Wednesday at $3.185/MMBtu.
  • Net injections to working gas totaled 54 Bcf for the week ending April 14. Working natural gas stocks are 2,115 Bcf, which is 15% less than the year-ago level and 15% more than the five-year (2012–16) average for this week.
  • The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, rose by 13¢, averaging $6.50/MMBtu for the week ending April 19. The price of natural gasoline and ethane both fell by 1%. The price of propane, butane, and isobutane rose by 4%, 5%, and 3%, respectively.
  • According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Friday, April 14, the natural gas rig count decreased by 3 to 162. The number of oil-directed rigs rose by 11 to 683. The total rig count increased by 8, and it now stands at 847.
Prices/Supply/Demand: Prices movements were mixed. This report week (Wednesday, April 12 to Wednesday, April 19), the Henry Hub spot price rose 13¢ from $2.99/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.12/MMBtu yesterday. At the Chicago Citygate, prices were unchanged from last Wednesday at $2.96/MMBtu. Prices at PG&E Citygate in Northern California gained 3¢, up from $3.32/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.35/MMBtu yesterday. The price at SoCal Citygate decreased 5¢ from $3.25/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.20/MMBtu yesterday....
The Nymex contract was flat. At the Nymex, the price of the May 2017 contract was unchanged Wednesday to Wednesday at $3.185/MMBtu. The price of the 12-month strip averaging the May 2017 through April 2018 futures contracts climbed 1¢ to $3.385/MMBtu.

Supply falls slightly. According to data from PointLogic, the average total supply of natural gas fell by 1% compared with the previous week. Dry natural gas production remained constant week over week. Average net imports from Canada decreased by 5% from last week.

Demand falls in residential/commercial sector. Total U.S. consumption of natural gas fell by 6% compared with the previous report week, according to data from PointLogic. Power burn climbed by 6% week over week, and was the only sector where demand increased. Industrial sector consumption decreased by 2% week over week. In the residential and commercial sectors, consumption declined by 28%, as temperatures exceeded seasonal norms in much of the nation. Natural gas exports to Mexico decreased 24%, with maintenance on the NET Mexico Pipeline continuing to restrict export flows....MUCH MORE 
*Buffet's comment was in reference  to this statistical oddity of a secular bear market:
December 31, 1964: DJIA 874.12
December 31, 1981: DJIA 875.00