Thursday, April 20, 2017

Insurance: "2017 hurricane forecasts suggest below average season due to El Niño"

From Artemis:
2017 hurricane season forecastA number of forecasts have been released for the 2017 Atlantic Tropical Storm & Hurricane Season and so far all are calling for activity levels just below the long-term average, with the expectation that we will see a weak El Niño by the typical peak of the season suggesting a slower year.

It’s a very similar situation to this time last year, when the early hurricane season forecasts were largely suggesting a more active year due to the state of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and whether it would be neutral or a La Niña, expected to have a strong influence on activity.

In 2017 we find similar factors at play, with the state of the ENSO forecast to define just how active a hurricane season the insurance and reinsurance industry sees, but this year meteorologists are largely anticipating a shift to El Niño conditions by the summer and just before the traditional peak of the hurricane season, although uncertainy remains (of course).

With a number of the main forecasters now having their predictions for the season published, we’ve launched an updated page for our readers to track the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season throughout the year.

From the forecast storm numbers below it’s clear that while the predictions are for a below average season, it is only slightly so and in terms of hurricanes and major hurricanes it is of course the location and track that really matters to the insurance, reinsurance, catastrophe bond and ILS industry.
2017 Atlantic hurricane season forecasts
As we’re all aware, it only takes one of the forecast major hurricanes to track towards a major city on the U.S. Gulf or East Coast and, no matter how average the seasonal activity is, it will be above the recent average for insurance and reinsurance interests....MUCH MORE, excellent overview.