I for one welcome the permanently high plateau.*
From MarketWatch, December 5:
BlackRock has said the global economy has exited the cycle of ‘boom and bust’ due to a fundamental shift driven by the emergence of “mega forces” including artificial intelligence technologies.
In its 2025 Global Outlook, BlackRock said it believes the world economy is currently in the process of being entirely “reshaped” by the emergence of five new “mega forces,” including the shift to net zero carbon emissions, geopolitical fragmentation, demographic trends, digitization of finance and AI.
The fund manager, which controls $11.5 trillion worth of assets, said it now believes this “economic transformation” has seen the global economy break away from “historical trends” that have seen markets go through cycles of boom and bust for centuries.
“Mega forces are reshaping economies and their long-term trajectories – it’s no longer about short-term fluctuations in activity leading to expansion or recession,” BlackRock said in its 2025 Global Outlook.
“2024 has reinforced our view that we are not in a business cycle: AI has been a major market driver, inflation fell without a growth slowdown and typical recession signals failed,” the asset manager said.
BlackRock said it expects stocks will now be boosted by this ongoing worldwide transformation that will require huge investments from capital markets. The asset manager said those investments could sit on par with sums invested during the Industrial Revolution of the 19th and 20th centuries.
Investors should, therefore, reconsider the ways they invest by focusing on the long-term future, including by seeking to capitalize on the buildout of the infrastructure needed for this new future, the world’s largest asset manager said....
2025
THEMATIC OUTLOOK
AI and geopolitics forge new paths
*Possibly also of interest, the infrastructure series:
February 23: The Infrastructure Theme Is For Real (PWR)
January 31:"KKR raises $6.4 bln for its Asian infrastructure fund" (KKR)
January 8 "East
Coast land continues to collapse at a worrying rate It's steadily
sinking or subsiding, which is destabilizing levees, roads, and
airports."
January 8: "There’s a Shortage of Electrical Wires, Transformers. That’s Good for These Stocks."
January 12: (Big) Batteries: "‘World leading' Tesla battery online to help kick coal out of Hawaii" (TSLA)
January 12: BlackRock Goes Large-by-Large In Infrastructure (BLK)"
January 15: "Investors look set to pour cash into infrastructure following BlackRock acquisition" (BLK)
January 16: "BlackRock Acquisition Triples Its Business of Building Airports, Roads, and Utilities"
I'm
telling ya, this is a big deal. Not just for the $12.5 billion purchase
price but for the $100+ billion in assets that GIP manages.
January 23: Minerals-for-Infrastructure: "Congo and China Talking $7 Billion In Finance, Tshisekedi Says"
January 23: DEI and ESG Live On, We Just Won't Talk About Them (BLK)
That's one lesson from BlackRock's purchase of Global Infrastructure Partners.
January 29: RAND: "The U.S. Must Close the Long-Distance Power Transmission Gap with China" Or, as the Financial Times put it, a bit more succinctly, February 1, 2024:
KKR has raised a record $6.4bn for its latest Asian infrastructure fund, capping a month of frenzied investment activity in the sector at a time when broader private equity fundraising has slowed.
—KKR raises record $6.4bn for Asia fund in infrastructure rush
September 2024: Big Money: "Microsoft, BlackRock form group to raise $100 billion to invest in AI data centers and power"
November 2024: "Wall Street's Elites Are Piling Into a Massive AI Gamble"
Related, December 4, 2023:
Russell Napier Called It: "The Eyepopping Factory Construction Boom in the US"
And possibly most important:
March 18 - In Nvidia's World, If You (and your company) Don't Have Money You Will Not Be Able To Compete (NVDA)
