From the New York Times, December 26:
As the technology is widely adopted, some once-struggling midsize cities in the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and South may benefit, new research predicts.
Chattanooga, Tenn., a midsize Southern city, is on no one’s list of artificial intelligence hot spots.
But as the technology’s use moves beyond a few big city hubs and is more widely adopted across the economy, Chattanooga and other once-struggling cities in the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and South are poised to be among the unlikely winners, a recent study found.
The shared attributes of these metropolitan areas include an educated work force, affordable housing and workers who are mostly in occupations and industries less likely to be replaced or disrupted by A.I., according to the study by two labor economists, Scott Abrahams, an assistant professor at Louisiana State University, and Frank Levy, a professor emeritus at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. These cities are well positioned to use A.I. to become more productive, helping to draw more people to those areas.
The study is part of a growing body of research pointing to the potential for chatbot-style artificial intelligence to fuel a reshaping of the population and labor market map of America. A.I.’s transformative force could change the nation’s economy and politics, much like other technological revolutions.
“This is a powerful technology that will sweep through American offices with potentially very significant geographic implications,” said Mark Muro, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, where he studies the regional effects of technology and government policy. “We need to think about what’s coming down the pike.”
At issue is a new and rapidly growing breed of the technology known as generative A.I., which can quickly draft business reports, write software and answer questions, often with human-level skill. Already, predictions abound that generative A.I. will displace workers in call centers, software developers and business analysts.
That pattern of technology disruption has happened before. The industrial revolution mechanized agriculture, pushing workers off farms and into cities. Modern cars and roads brought the rise of the suburbs in the 1950s and 1960s. Factory automation and globalization, accelerated by the internet, destroyed jobs in traditional manufacturing centers, depopulating parts of the Midwest and South.
While uncertainty remains about how fast and how far into workplaces generative A.I. will reach, a series of studies have concluded that the impact is likely to be substantial, perhaps automating the equivalent of millions of jobs.
To date, the regions benefiting the most from the rapidly progressing technology have been a handful of metro areas where scientists are building A.I., including Silicon Valley.
But those places are also some of the ones most apt to face issues as A.I. gets better and can automate jobs, according to the labor economists’ study. Centers of technology and office work including San Jose, San Francisco, Washington, New York and Boston are home to large numbers of high-paid workers, from business analysts to computer programmers, whose tasks involve generating words or code, which is what A.I. does well.
But exposure to A.I. does not necessarily translate to sweeping job losses. These cities, the economists note, have proved to be among the most resilient, dynamic places in the country, able to withstand setbacks and recover.
In their paper, the two labor economists identified nearly two dozen metropolitan areas expected to benefit from the broader adoption of A.I. technology, including Dayton, Ohio; Scranton, Pa.; Savannah, Ga.; and Greenville, S.C.....
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