Tuesday, September 19, 2023

"The Canadian Dollar Shines in a Mostly Consolidative FX Market Ahead of the Flurry of Central Bank Meetings"

From Marc to Market:

Overview: Ahead of the flurry of central bank meetings, starting with the Federal Reserve and Brazil tomorrow, the dollar is largely consolidating in narrow ranges. The euro, sterling, and yen are trading slightly heavier, while the dollar bloc and Scandis enjoy a firmer bias. The Canadian dollar stands out as is trades at its best level since mid-August ahead of its CPI report and despite a diplomatic dispute with India and the failure of negotiations to prevent an autoworkers strike starting today. Emerging market currencies are mixed, but of note, the yuan is flat, and the Mexican peso has come back better bid after yesterday's fall.

Japan's Topix and Hong Kong's Hang Seng managed to post small gains, but the other large bourses in the region traded heavily. Europe's Stoxx 600 is slightly firmer today after falling 1.1% yesterday, its largest decline since early August. US index futures also enjoy a firmer bias. The 10-year JGB yield is edging to new highs (~0.71%), while European benchmark 10-year yields are slightly lower. Italy and Greek 10-year yields are off more than two basis points, and Gilt yield is off nearly four basis points. The 10-year US Treasury yield is firmer at 4.31% and the two-year is steady near 5.05%. Gold is firm and around $1935 it is at its best level in two weeks, extending is rebound slightly from the low near $1900 last week. Crude oil is reaching new highs. November WTI reached nearly $91.70. Recall that is settled last month slightly below $83. Average retail US gasoline prices has edged up from $3.81 at the end of August to $3.88 yesterday.

Asia Pacific
Chinese banks set the loan prime rates first thing tomorrow.
Even though the benchmark one-year Medium Term Lending Facility (MLF) rate was left unchanged at 2.50% last week, it is possible that the prime loan rates are shaved....

....MUCH MORE