Wednesday, September 27, 2023

Capital Markets: "Firmer Bonds and Stocks, but the Dollar Presses Ahead"

From Marc to Market:

Overview: The S&P 500 hit three-month lows yesterday, while the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence fell to a four-month low. New home sales fell to their lowest level in five years. The US federal government appears headed for a partial shutdown on October 1. Still, the greenback rides high. It is extending its gains against several G10 currencies, including the euro and sterling. The Swiss franc is moving lower for the 12th consecutive session. The beleaguered yen and yuan are consolidating near their recent lows. Most emerging market currencies are also softer. Gold has been sold below $1900 for the first time this month.

Despite yesterday's sharp losses in the US, equities are trading higher today. Aside from Australia and New Zealand, the large bourses in Asia rose, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the first time this week and only the second time since September 15. The same is true of Europe's Stoxx 600. It is posting a small gain through the European morning. US index futures are also trading with a firmer bias. The sell-off in bonds is stabilizing today. European benchmark yields are mostly 2-4 bp lower. The 10-year US Treasury yield is four basis points lower to hover around 4.50%. The US two-year yield, which was near 5.20% last week, is near 5.05% now (20-day moving average is ~5.02%). Lastly, November WTI recovered smartly from a pullback to $88.20 and settled near $90.40. It has approached $91.60 today and the high for the year, set last week, was slightly shy of $92.45.  

Asia Pacific...

....MUCH MORE