Thursday, September 21, 2023

Capital Markets: "Higher for Longer Lifts the Dollar, while SNB Surprises Many by Standing Pat--Over to the BOE"

Late last night the 10-year treasury note traded at a 15-year high yield and hasn't recovered all that much this morning.

From Marc to Market:

Overview: The Federal Reserve's hawkish hold, which included 50 bp less of cuts next year than it had signaled in June, has lifted the dollar against most currencies today. The notable exception is the Japanese yen. The greenback did extend its advance to new highs for the year before the market turned cautious ahead of the outcome of the Bank of Japan meeting tomorrow. The Swiss franc is the weakest of the G10 currencies after the Swiss National Bank defied economists' expectations and left rates unchanged. The Swedish krona and Norwegian krone are little changed after their central banks delivered a quarter-point hike. Attention turns to the Bank of England which will announce its decision shortly. Ahead of it, sterling has traded below $1.23 for the first time in five months.

Rising rates have weighed on equities. Most of the large bourses in the Asia Pacific region fell by more than 1%. Europe's Stoxx 600 has given back yesterday's 0.9% advance, and US index futures are trading modestly lower. The yield of the 10-year JGB rose to a new high near 0.73%. European benchmark 10-year rates are mostly 4-5 bp higher, though Gilts and Italian and Greek yields are up a little more than six basis points. The 10-year US Treasury yield is near 4.43%, up a couple of basis points, while the two-year yield is off a couple of basis points to 5.15%. The prospect of higher rates for longer and a strong US dollar has seen gold return to around $1922 after approaching $1950 yesterday. November WTI reversed lower on Tuesday after reaching almost $92.45. It has been sold to a five-day low today near $88.35, where it is trying to steady....

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