Wednesday, May 3, 2023

Capital Markets: "Fed Day "

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview: A sharper than expected decline in US job openings and weaker factory orders coupled with intensifying bank stress sent ripples through the capital markets. The large US bank index fell 4.5% yesterday, the most in six weeks, while the regional bank index fell nearly 5.5%, its biggest loss since March 13. Both indices took out the March lows. The US 10-year yield unwound Monday's increase and the two-year note yield fell back below 4.0% for the first time since the middle of last week, and yields remain under pressure today. The dollar gave back its earlier gains against most of the G10 currencies. The greenback remains under pressure today. Only the Australian and Canadian dollars are struggling to rise today. Most emerging market currencies are also firm today. 

Japanese and mainland Chinese markets were on holiday today and they were spared today's regional sell-off led by the 1%+ losses in Hong Kong. After being tagged for 1.25% yesterday, Europe's Stoxx 600 is about 0.3% firmer today. Its bank index has steadied after dropping nearly 2.4% yesterday. US equity futures are steady to firmer. European bond yields are 2-4 bp lower and the US 10-year Treasury is slipping below 3.40%. Lower yields and a weaker dollar lifted gold back above $2000 yesterday and it is holding a tight range today (~$2012.70-$2019.55). Recall that last week's high was slightly above $2009. Oil prices have continued to sell-off sharply today. June WTI settled near $76.80 at the end of last week. It dropped to almost $71.40 yesterday, and today, it has slipped below $70 for the first time since March 27. The next area of chart support is around $69 and then $67....

....MUCH MORE