Thursday, May 25, 2023

Nvidia's Guidance For The Ages: Analysts React (NVDA)

Some of the enthusiasm—one "pay any price, bear any burden"* investor was able to grab some at $395.00—from yesterday has been tempered a bit, currently $380.91 up $75.53 (+24.73%).

From Yahoo Finance, May 25:

....Tristan Gerra, Baird (Outperform rating, upgrade from hold; $475 price target, up from $300): "We raised our estimates above consensus and added a Fresh Pick designation to Nvidia on March 20 reflecting our channel feedback about strong H100 orders notably related to ChatGPT emerging in March but we failed to upgrade at that time. As AI-related order momentum continues into the second half, annualized earnings of $10 are at reach within 2-3 quarters in our view, reflected in the valuation post earnings. Our raised next two-year EPS forecast assumes continued AI-related momentum driven by two secular growth trends: continued adoption rate for parallel processing-based acceleration in data centers, and the emergence of AI models notably related to ChatGPT and LLMs [large language models], all of which require GPUs."

Atif Malik, Citi (Buy rating; $420 price target, up from $353): "While we had raised our target price and estimates into the earnings, Generative AI upside was bigger than we expected. Nvidia expects data center sales to roughly double in the July quarter driven by Gen AI demand from CSPs, consumer internet companies, and accelerated computing in enterprises. Nvidia estimates only ~4% of the $1 trillion data center CPU installed base over the last four years has been GPU accelerated, implying AI adoption remains in early innings."....

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*Because of the earlier reference to Soviet negotiating tactics I was thinking of John Kennedy's Inaugural Address:

...Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill, that we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe to assure the survival and the success of liberty....