With the official start of the season a couple days away it is time to start paying greater attention to the perils.
From CatBond mavens Artemis, May 30:
A 2023 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from the UK Met Office is calling for a high level of tropical storm activity this year, with an above normal number of hurricanes and major hurricanes expected to form, the first of the forecasters we track to suggest a more active season is coming.
The rest of the hurricane season forecasts we track here at Artemis had opted for below-average to about average levels of activity, citing an expectation that the development of an El Niño will quench storm activity in the tropics.
But, as we’ve reported before, some meteorologists are saying that warmer than normal sea surface temperatures (SST’s) in the Atlantic tropics introduce a lot of uncertainty and the UK Met Office appears to be opting for this warm SST dynamic and also lower than normal wind shear to accentuate storm activity throughout this 2023 hurricane season.
The UK Met Office forecasts 20 named tropical storms will form this season (with a 70% chance that the number will be in the range 14 to 26), 11 of which becoming hurricanes (with a 70% chance that the number will be in the range 8 to 14), and 5 intensifying to major hurricane status (with a 70% chance that the number will be in the range 3 to 7).
That’s a forecast some way above the long-term average of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes....
....MUCH MORE
