Monday, January 2, 2017

"Tracking HelloFresh’s Growth"

From Mattermark, Dec. 21:
Editor’s Morning Note: HelloFresh raised €85 million more. Let’s take a look at its financial performance.
According to reports in both and VentureBeat, HelloFresh has raised another €85 million. The new capital brings the meal delivery’s tally to more than $350 million.
News reports, partially in German, appear nascent. While the core facts of the funding event are sorted, we can do our own work. HelloFresh is part of the larger Rocket Internet family, meaning that we can dig into its numbers.
Before we do, VentureBeat says that the company’s valuation is flat around the €2.6 billion mark; has a lower figure. Bloomberg agrees with that the company’s valuation has gone down:
Berlin-based recipe-kit company HelloFresh raised 85 million euros ($88.5 million) in new funding, valuing the company at 2 billion euros — about 20 percent less than 15 months ago.
That means HelloFresh’s figures that we are going to look at show a repricing of the value of its revenue, which went up during the intervening period between capital occurrences. How can we know? More top line and flat or down value implies less value per revenue-dollar. The shift matches other repricing activity we have seen in SaaS.
Let’s get busy.
As we’re in the midst of the fourth quarter, we’ll peek at HelloFresh’s first, second, and third quarter performance. Those figures will give us a good look at the company’s recent performance heading into its most recent fundraising.
  • Q1: €141.4 million
  • Q2: €150.1 million
  • Q3: €146.8 million
Result: 2016 numbers are up sharply from 2015’s results, yes, but it doesn’t show much sequential-quarter growth.
  • Q1: -€27.3 million
  • Q2: -€18.4 million
  • Q3: -€20.5 million
Result: Third quarter adjusted losses were down around 30 percent, but losses were greater in the first three quarters of 2016 when compared to the year-ago period....MORE
Mattermark asks:
Homework: You have $50 million to invest in a single shot. Do you deploy it to HelloFresh at its current valuation, or hold the cash?
No, no I would not deploy.