Thursday, January 19, 2017

Corn vs. Beans: Strong Incentive to Plant Soybeans

Last Chg
Corn 363-4-1-4
Soybeans 1067-4-7-4
Wheat 425-6-5-2

From Agrimoney:

Bull markets in grains need feeding, they say.
That is, escalating futures need a daily dose of price-supportive news to keep them on an upward path.
And the apparent lack of much fresh on Argentina's weather woes, the catalyst to the rally over the past week in prices of soybeans and of soymeal (of which the country is the world's top exporter), allowed a touch of profit-taking in early deals on Thursday....
China, US considerations
Still, what the apparent, if temporary, ceasefire by Argentina's weather Gods does allow is a focus on some of the other factors in the soybean market.
Such as, for instance, the potential dent to demand of prices which set a six-month high in Chicago in the last session, up 6.3% in a week, for spot March futures.
China, the top soybean importer, "thus far, is showing no interest in chasing the rally," said Richard Feltes at Chicago broker RJ O'Brien, if adding that this dearth of interest "may change after crushers return from Chinese new year".
And then there is the enhanced potential for huge US spring sowings of soybeans being encouraged by the elevated prices.
The ratio of November soybean futures: December corn futures, at 2.63, is well into territory incentivising plantings of the oilseed over the grain.
This "historically high" ratio is "providing a strong incentive for US farmers to increase 2017 US soy acreage, with private sector analysts looking for a 5m-7m acre gain" in the country's soybean area....