Euromoney Country Risk survey results 2016: Italy, UK and US shocks underline the risks of populism, as oil exporters take a caning
ECR’s crowd-sourcing survey shows global risk rising in 2016, with leading economists and political experts revising their views on asset safety.
Country risk scores continued to plunge in Q4 2016, prompted by uncertainty over Italy’s political and banking sector problems, and the outlook for global trade, with the rise of populism emanating from Brexit, Donald Trump’s election victory and prospective elections across Europe coming into view this year. The ECR survey is conducted on a quarterly basis, and quantifies the opinions provided by more than 400 contributors, uniquely aggregating the views of experts within the finance and non-finance sectors. Their scores on 15 key economic, political and structural factors are added to values for capital access, credit ratings and debt indicators to provide a total risk measure, ranging between a maximum 100 points (total safety) or zero (certain default). These final results update the preliminary figures recently published by ECR.
Global rout G10 scores weakened in Q4, as the investor outlook darkened for Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy, Japan and the US particularly. Worsening economic and fiscal problems for net oil producers saw Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Gabon, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Venezuela downgraded, despite the mini-bounce in global oil prices towards year-end. There were large score declines for emerging and frontier markets, including Bolivia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Vietnam and several in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as capital access tightened. Scores fell for China, India and Turkey, with currency stability questioned....MUCH MOREHT: True Economics
Previously:
Dec. 29
Euromoney Free to View: (Your Chance To See the Alternative Year In Review)
Stratfor's Annual Forecast 2017 e.g. “European Union will eventually dissolve” (rincez et répétez)
Eurasia Group's Top Risks 2017: The Geopolitical Recession
