Friday, January 6, 2017

FX: "That Trump Trade in full [Update]"

Depending on what, if anything, passes the Congress, tax reform could have a significant strengthening effect on the dollar, driving the DXY to anywhere from 108 to >110 and EUR/USD to .95. That would slam the brakes on U.S. exports but make it cheaper to go buy Europe, at least the yummy bits.

From FT Alphaville:
With thanks to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Flow Show, who do say US stocks, banks, loans and value stocks may be vulnerable to any wobbles in enthusiasm for Trump the president, rather than the tweeting Potus-elect.

Who, by the way, is “very very serious about a protectionist US trade policy”, according to Nomura’s Bilal Hafeez:
He has flip-flopped on many issues over the years, but not on trade policy. In 1999 when he last considered running as President he was pro-choice and pro-wealth tax, today he has flipped those views. But back then, on China’s entry to WTO he was a vocal critic even as the Republican Party was supportive with figures like Paul Ryan, Tom Price (soon-to-be Health Secretary) and Bush supporting it.
Nomura is in the dollar weakness camp, which is definitively not a popular Trump trade so far. Trump has been almost silent on the question of dollar strength, and his nominee for the Treasury has ducked questions on the subject.*

A couple of previous notable Republican Presidents have been responsible for currency intervention, as seen in this handy chart....


Dollar index 101.73 up .20; euro 1.0613 down 0.0009.

Related at Alphaville:
What has happened before will happen again, CNH short squeeze edition